poll time-nycm 2011 edition!

Yep, it’s back!! And this time it will be in the sidebar til race day…

Again-realistic guesses please! (if you want to comment your guess, go ahead too!)

So to give some background, I might as well reveal my several tiers of race goals.

  • Finish.  After MCM in 2009, I will never take finishing for granted ever again.
  • Sub-4.  I’ve never run a marathon over 4 hours.  I’d kind of like to keep up that streak.
  • Sub-3:40.  Will be my third time trying for it!!  Would love to get this time after it has eluded me the last coupla years…and oh yeah, is also the new BQ time for my age group.
  • Sub-3:35.  BQ-5 for me, or the open standard…would be kinda cool to get even though I’ve aged up 🙂  Using my SI Half time as a predictor, McMillan sez 3:31:51.  Doable?  Maybe.  My MP work has been around that pace… (and for what it’s worth, in 2008 McMillan predicted a time 23 secs slower than what I actually ran in NYC!  Pretty damn close.)
  • If things were to go totally, absolutely perfect…stars aligned, etc…sub-3:30.  in other words, I don’t anticipate this one happening.  If it does, I will be dancing on tables 🙂  Daniels predicts 3:28:39 from my SI Half time, but I still feel that is a little aggressive…

Training seemed, mileage-wise, to be sorta in line with 2008-which coincidentally, was my last good marathon 🙂  But lot more quality this time around (track, tempo, hills), including MP work, and the race times showed it 🙂

And for fun, a little comparison of the tune-up races in previous years and what they led to on race day 🙂

  NYC 2006 NYC 2008 Chicago 2010 NYC 2011
5K N/A 22:44 23:24
22:48
22:30
4 mile N/A N/A N/A 28:43
5 mile 39:03 38:11 37:36 36:00
Half-marathon 1:47:51 (NYC Half)
1:48:57 (Grete’s)
1:42:20 1:44:19 (extrapolated from 20K time) 1:38:58 (flat)
1:40:27 (hilly)
Marathon result 3:58:26 3:44:14 3:43:06 ???

Vote early. But do not vote often-I once again fixed it so certain people won’t try and stuff the ballot box…you all know who you are!

Thanks for playing!

guess my half-marathon time, 2011 edition

It’s back!!  Less than 2 weeks to go til the Rock ‘n’ Roll Philly Half, time for the guessing game to start.

Realistic guesses please!  To help with that, here’s a little data…

Best half ever was from this same race in 2009-1:37:36.  2nd best was 1:42:20 in the 2008 race!

In terms of predictors for now…my Club Champs 5M time predicts 1:40:25. Keeping in mind that was a hilly course and on a hot/humid day and I wasn’t really tapered…with the flat course, and being a little further along in training, I’m hoping I can better that prediction a little bit.

In comparison, 2008’s Club Champs 5M time predicted 1:46:30 and I ran 1:42:20 that year…and in 2009 the Club Champs 5M time predicted 1:42:41 and I actually ran 1:37:36.

Orrrrr…if you want to go by paces per mile-in 2008 I ran 7:38 pace at Club Champs and 7:48 pace in the half.  2009, ran 7:21 pace at Club Champs and 7:27 pace in the half.  2011, I ran 7:12 pace at Club Champs and ??? pace for the half…?

As always, one of the choices I feel is very unrealistic, but I felt I had to put it in anyway.

My goals for this race…would like a PR, definitely want under 1:40 to prove that time 2 years ago was not a fluke (is it me, or am I having to prove that a lot of times aren’t flukes…)  And wouldn’t mind hitting the NYCM/NYC Half qualifying standard of 1:37 or better (provided that does not get changed)

Vote early. But do not vote often-I once again fixed it so certain people won’t try and stuff the ballot box…you all know who you are!

Thanks for playing!

“guess my marathon time”, chicago edition

OK I’m bored at work right now.  So might as well post.  Yep, it’s that time again.

Again-realistic guesses please!  (if you want to comment your guess, go ahead too!)  To help, here are the stats…

Only two marathons to date that I’ve actually finished-NYC 2006 in 3:58:26 (splits of 1:58:02/2:00:24.) and NYC 2008 in 3:44:14 (1:50:43/1:53:31)  Both had picture-perfect weather.

This time, topped out at a 52 mile week (this past week-only one over 50), with 10 weeks where my mileage was at least 40, three 20-milers and one 21 miler (this past weekend.) For the bulk of training-ran 5 days a week-which included 1 tempo or MP run, 1 VO2max/interval session and a long run.

Races-this time around my best 5M time was 37:36 (my time for the same race in 2008 was 38:11 and 2009 was 36:49) and ran a 20K race in 1:38:51.  (In 2008, I ran a half-marathon in 1:42:20 and in 2009 in 1:37:36.)  And I guess there’s always the Brooklyn Half which I ran before I started training…that being 1:42:27.

In terms of predictors for now…my 20K time predicts 3:40 flat.  My Club Champs 5M time predicts 3:41:11.  I wasn’t tapered for either of those races though.  The Brooklyn Half, which I was tapered for (and ran on much lower mileage), predicts 3:36:04.

I know how flat Chicago is…not sure how much of a difference, minutes-wise, that will make (between that and a hilly course like NYC.)

Again, one of the choices I feel is very unrealistic, but I felt I had to put it in anyway.

Right now, the goal is…well you know what the A goal is. 🙂  Fallback goal will be a PR…so maybe I could qualify for 2012?

Vote early. But do not vote often-I once again fixed it so certain people won’t try and stuff the ballot box…you know who you are 😉

Thanks for playing!

“no sleep” or “the situation”

OK, as I hinted to Kevin in a previous comment of mine, a poll was gonna be coming soon…and well without further ado…here it is.

So with my fall goal race in place, I was still thinking about something to work towards in late spring…thinking half marathon.

So originally I was thinking the NJ/Long Branch half…having heard good things about the race and knowing others who are doing that race and/or the full marathon.  But then I started wondering if I’d be ready in time and wouldn’t you know it…Brooklyn is a coupla weeks later…and that is a race course I do need some revenge on.

Basically my goal would be not to “just finish”, but to run well.  I have a feeling a PR/NYCM qualifying time would be out, but I’d love under 1:50, or even better, under 1:45.

So let’s weigh the pros and cons of both:

New Jersey
Pros: Cons:
  •  flat, fast course-I’ve heard very good things about it
  • other Flyers/friends running either this race or the full
  • experience a new race
  • possibility of guest appearances by “Snooki,” “J-Woww” or “The Situation” (yeah couldn’t resist a Jersey Shore joke)
  •  kinda pricey (currently $85, up to $90 on March 1)
  • no race-day packet pickup
  • May 2nd-may not be ready in time?
  • dealing with NJ Transit to get there…we all know how undependable they are!
Brooklyn
Pros: Cons:
  •  (relatively) close to home-much easier to get to
  • may be fun to experience the new course ending at Coney Island, enjoy the post-party on the beach
  • May 22nd-3 more weeks to prep
  • can pace the whole 13.1 for the More Half Marathon on 4/25 instead of cutting it short to taper
  • much cheaper ($25 before May 7)
  • another race towards the 9 + 1 for NYCM 2011 guaranteed entry (not saying im going to run it, but nice to have the option if needed)
  • would like revenge on this course
  •  Prospect Park hills at the beginning
  • heard not-so-good things about the water situation on the course, and a bottleneck when the faster runners lapped the slower runners in the park last year
  • the boardwalk tore up my calves in 2005 and 2006-would the same thing happen again?
  • Only 3 weeks of downtime before I’d start training for Chicago

So help me decide!!  Poll is below…and feel free to comment your reasoning(s) for your votes too!

Thanks for playing 🙂

"guess my marathon time", MCM edition

I may be tempting fate by posting this, but what the hell. Yep, it’s that time again.

Again-realistic guesses please! 🙂 To help, here are the stats…

Only two marathons to date-NYC 2006 in 3:58:26 (splits of 1:58:02/2:00:24.) and NYC 2008 in 3:44:14 (1:50:43/1:53:31)  Both had picture-perfect weather.

This time, topped out at a 54 mile week, with 11 weeks where my mileage was at least 40 (2 of those being 50+), and three 20-milers. Races-this time around my best 5M time was 36:49 and best half-marathon time was 1:37:36 (last year I ran the same exact races in 38:11 and 1:42:20.)

In terms of predictors for now…my Philly Distance Run time predicts 3:25:50. Uh yeah. My Club Champs 5M time predicts 3:36:35…more realistic, perhaps?

I know the MCM course is supposed to be flatter than NYC…not sure how much of a difference that will make.

Again, one of the choices I feel is very unrealistic (although I know some of you think otherwise!), but I felt I had to put it in anyway.

Right now, the goal is…well you know what the goal is 🙂

Vote early. But do not vote often-I once again fixed it so certain people won’t try and stuff the ballot box…you know who you are 😉

Thanks for playing!

What will my MCM time be?(polling)

guess my half-marathon time-2009 style!!

yep it’s back!!  Less than 3 weeks to go til the Philly Distance Run, time for the guessing game to start…check out the new poll in the sidebar!

Realistic guesses please! 🙂 To help with that, here’s a little data…

Best half ever is last year’s Philly Distance Run-1:42:20
In terms of predictors for now…my Club Champs 5M time predicts 1:42:41. (not using either of my 5K races to predict…too short!)
In comparison, last year’s Club Champs 5M time predicted 1:46:30 and I ran 1:42:20.
As always, one of the choices I feel is very unrealistic, but I felt I had to put it in anyway.
My main goal for this race…would like at the very least a PR, but kinda sorta dreaming of 1:40…I’d take either sub-1:40 or 1:40:xx

Vote early. But do not vote often-I once again fixed it so certain people won’t try and stuff the ballot box…you all know who you are!

Thanks for playing!

What will my 2009 Philly Distance Run time be?(opinion)

once again, it’s time…

…for another “guess my race time” poll!! This one, the Club Team Champs 5-miler edition. Check it out in the sidebar.

Now, I know you can’t predict marathon times from short distances like a 5-mile race. But according to the everso popular McMillan calculator, my time from last year’s race predicted a 3:44:37 marathon…and I ran 3:44:14! So pretty damn close…and why I’m curious to see how well I do here 😉

Once again-realistic guesses please! 🙂 To help with that, here’s a little data…

Best 5-mile time is the last of the old-school PRs…37:51 in the Father’s Day 5-miler in 2004.
2nd best is 38:11 in last year’s version of this race-which I claim as my “submasters PR” 🙂
If you want to count 8K times too, then 37:35 in this year’s NYRR 8000 is I guess my best most recent time for the distance…which is equivalent to a 37:47 5-miler.
In terms of predictors for now…my time from the Mini 10K predicts 37:51…why, that time looks very familiar!! And keep in mind, this race won’t have the Harlem Hills like the Mini did…not to mention that the Mini was before marathon training, on much less mileage…
The time from my recent 5K predicts 37:06. That course didn’t have the CP hills…but I do feel that I’m stronger in longer distances…not to mention that this race has great cheering sections 🙂 Also-I wasn’t tapered for the 5K…had done 15 miles 2 days earlier.
Loose time goal for now is a PR…to wipe the last of those 2004 PRs off the books 🙂
Again. one of the choices I feel is very unrealistic, but I felt I had to put it in anyway.

Vote early. But do not vote often-I once again fixed it so certain people won’t try and stuff the ballot box…you know you know 😉

Thanks for playing!

What will my Club Team Champs 5-miler time be?(surveys)