“guess my marathon time”, chicago edition

OK I’m bored at work right now.  So might as well post.  Yep, it’s that time again.

Again-realistic guesses please!  (if you want to comment your guess, go ahead too!)  To help, here are the stats…

Only two marathons to date that I’ve actually finished-NYC 2006 in 3:58:26 (splits of 1:58:02/2:00:24.) and NYC 2008 in 3:44:14 (1:50:43/1:53:31)  Both had picture-perfect weather.

This time, topped out at a 52 mile week (this past week-only one over 50), with 10 weeks where my mileage was at least 40, three 20-milers and one 21 miler (this past weekend.) For the bulk of training-ran 5 days a week-which included 1 tempo or MP run, 1 VO2max/interval session and a long run.

Races-this time around my best 5M time was 37:36 (my time for the same race in 2008 was 38:11 and 2009 was 36:49) and ran a 20K race in 1:38:51.  (In 2008, I ran a half-marathon in 1:42:20 and in 2009 in 1:37:36.)  And I guess there’s always the Brooklyn Half which I ran before I started training…that being 1:42:27.

In terms of predictors for now…my 20K time predicts 3:40 flat.  My Club Champs 5M time predicts 3:41:11.  I wasn’t tapered for either of those races though.  The Brooklyn Half, which I was tapered for (and ran on much lower mileage), predicts 3:36:04.

I know how flat Chicago is…not sure how much of a difference, minutes-wise, that will make (between that and a hilly course like NYC.)

Again, one of the choices I feel is very unrealistic, but I felt I had to put it in anyway.

Right now, the goal is…well you know what the A goal is. 🙂  Fallback goal will be a PR…so maybe I could qualify for 2012?

Vote early. But do not vote often-I once again fixed it so certain people won’t try and stuff the ballot box…you know who you are 😉

Thanks for playing!

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10 thoughts on ““guess my marathon time”, chicago edition

  1. I actually think you have a good chance at less than 3:30!!In any case, best of luck…

    Walt

  2. I’ll put my money on 3:30. For you and me both. Deal?

  3. I think you will be surprised by the flatness and what an advantage you will have with your regular hill training. Us central and northern IL people don’t get enough hills on a regular basis. And Chicago is the largest marathon I’ve ever done so maybe I’m bias, but you are going to get a charge out of the Chicago crowd. They are AMAZINGLY positive and vocal. The energy through the streets is unreal.

    Sorry I’m not going to speculate your time cause I want you to go for your A goal the whole way. Be ready for miles 18-21 to be the quietest on the whole route.

    What Corral are you in? You are going to rock this!

    • I’ve done NYCM twice, and from what you’re telling me, Chicago sounds very similar, down to the crowd support and where it’s quietest (in NYC, it’s upper 1st/5th ave and the Bronx…so around miles 19-22.) That’s one reason why I chose Chicago-I thrive on crowd support!! 🙂

      I think you may be right about having an advantage with training in Central Park…may be why I did well at the Philly Distance Run half-marathon…that’s the flattest half-marathon I’ve ever run.

      I’m in Corral C-my half time is actually only 1 1/2 minutes off from Corral B but honestly after last year’s lineup disaster at MCM, I’m happy to get any type of seeded/corraled start. 🙂

  4. Amen to the corrals. You know my beef with that! 🙂 So psyched for you! You can guess where my money is:)

  5. Hi there
    Like you i don’t alway feel like working… I’m sitting here in cape Town and have come across your blog, and I thought I should have a guess at your marathon time. I have guessed you will break 3h30. That said you will only do this if you want to, so don’t let me down, want it and go for it I really think you can do it.
    Your training seems to be in the right direction so now it’s up to you.

    Good Luck
    Coach Dion

  6. In April I told you I saw 3:34:25 for you, so that’s that.

    Although won’t be annoyed at you if you finish a tad speedier 🙂

    -Dave

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